Karnataka Leadership Crisis Deepens as Congress Watches D.K. Shivakumar’s Next Move

he political crisis in Karnataka has entered a critical stage, with supporters of Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar demanding that he replace Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. The Congress high command is now scrambling to contain the situation, as analysts warn that if the issue is mishandled, the party could face setbacks similar to those seen earlier in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

A Wound Reopens After Two Years

After the Congress’ sweeping win in the 2023 Assembly elections, the party appointed Siddaramaiah as Chief Minister and D.K. Shivakumar as his deputy. Since then, Shivakumar’s supporters have repeatedly claimed that the leadership had promised a “shared term” — meaning the CM’s post would shift to Shivakumar halfway through the tenure. Siddaramaiah’s camp has consistently denied the existence of any such agreement.

Tensions, however, have now surfaced openly. Party president Mallikarjun Kharge told reporters:
“We will resolve this matter. Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, and I will discuss it and take the necessary steps.”

Kharge met both leaders separately in Bengaluru last week, but the deadlock continues.

High Command Under Strain

Inside the party, many believe that key Congress managers — Randeep Singh Surjewala and K.C. Venugopal — have failed to take control of the situation.
A senior political observer noted:
“They can neither speak firmly with Siddaramaiah nor convince Shivakumar to wait. They haven’t even assessed the actual support among MLAs. For now, most MLAs appear to be with Siddaramaiah.”

A party insider added that there is no strong case against Siddaramaiah at the moment and that both leaders contributed equally to the Congress’ election victory.

Caste Dynamics Add Sensitivity

The Congress currently governs only three states — Karnataka, Telangana, and Himachal Pradesh. The Chief Ministers of Telangana and Himachal belong to upper-caste communities, while Siddaramaiah comes from the OBC category.

Given Rahul Gandhi’s vocal push for caste census and greater representation for OBC, Dalit, and Muslim groups, replacing an OBC Chief Minister could contradict his political message.

Looking Back: Past Mistakes, Present Fears

Congress leaders also fear repeating history. Around 35 years ago, the abrupt removal of Chief Minister Veerendra Patil angered the Lingayat community and helped the BJP gain a foothold in Karnataka. The BJP went on to win four Lok Sabha seats in 1991 and gradually strengthened its base in the state.

Similarly, the decision to replace Captain Amarinder Singh with Charanjit Singh Channi in Punjab backfired and benefitted the Aam Aadmi Party.

Shivakumar’s Strength Within the Party

D.K. Shivakumar is widely regarded as one of the party’s strongest fundraisers and is seen as close to Priyanka Gandhi. Because of his influence and organisational skills, the party cannot afford to ignore his dissatisfaction.

Sources close to him say he is “prepared to fight till the end.”
Siddaramaiah, meanwhile, has avoided making harsh statements, but recently remarked:
“The high command should put a full stop to this issue immediately.”

What Path Will Shivakumar Choose?

The key question now is whether Shivakumar will follow the route taken by Jyotiraditya Scindia — switching sides — or adopt Sachin Pilot’s strategy of staying put while continuing to push for his position.

If the high command intervenes and decides to replace Siddaramaiah, the Chief Minister is expected to insist that one of his loyalists be chosen as his successor.

Karnataka remains the Congress’ strongest state. But if this leadership dispute escalates, it could affect not only the government but also Rahul Gandhi’s political standing and the party’s preparations for 2026.